Sep 288 min read

Trust in Government

"If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary."

— Federalist No. 51

While often taken for granted, trust is a basic condition of the success of any human society. In our personal lives, trust can make or break relationships. Today researchers have shown that trust is also a key ingredient in a functional and healthy federal system.

Unfortunately, trust in government institutions is declining at an alarming rate in the United States. This report shows how and in what ways Americans have lost faith in their most important federal institutions. States and local governments have not been immune to Americans' negative attitudes toward government, but they have so far proven themselves to be resilient.

Introduction
"Very Big" Problem
"Biggest Threat"
Historic Lows
Trust in Federal Branches
Age and Partisanship
State and Local Governments
Governors, Mayors, and State Legislatures
International Comparison
Key Takeaways

The Importance of Trust

In a recent study by Pew Research Center, a worrisome 75% of respondents said that they believed that trust in "Federal Government" is shrinking faster today than ever. In the same survey, 64% said that low trust in the Federal Government is a problem because it makes it harder to solve problems. 68% said that it is important that we find ways to improve the level of confidence Americans have in the Federal Government:

Is Trust in the Federal Government a "Very Big" Problem?

How does this low level of trust in Federal Government compare to other problems in American life? A 2019 Pew study helps place the issue of trust in context. Researchers asked respondents to rank issues that count as a "very big problem."

As presentedbelow, 25% said that trust "in each other" was important, compared to 41%, who ranked trust in the Federal Government as a "very big problem." Clearly, Trust in Governmental institutions is was at least as important as other topics that are also of high importance, including including racism, illegal immigration, the quality of public schools, terrorism, sexism, and job opportunities:

As above, Americans think that trust in the Federal government is both 1) a "very big problem" and 2) an issue that needs to be solved, if we are going to be able to solve other problems. Trust in the Federal Government was ranked, at least in 2019, above racism and immigration, two issues that are said to be driving people to get involved in national elections.

Does this hold in the Biden era? In 2022, Americans listed "Government" as the most important national problem:

Historic Lows

Public trust in government has declined steadily over the decades, with only modest reversals, during the Reagan and Clinton eras. Two separate studies from Pew and the American National Election Studies (ANES) chart the decline in trust, which in 2023 reached a near record low. Both studies (shown below for comparison) demonstrate nearly identical patterns; in both datasets, overall trust has declined at a steady and dramatic rate since the postwar period (1945-present).

To break down these results by Party ID, Gender, Education, Race, Age, Knowledge, go to: https://electionstudies.org/data-tools/anes-guide/anes-guide.html?chart=trust_index

Pew ran an updated poll in 2023:

Factors of Mistrust

Why are Americans less trusting in their federal institutions today? The number of people who believe that the people running the federal government are "crooked" has gone up over time, from around 20% in 1960 to over 60% in 2012:

It has been a longstanding belief that human beings become more corrupt when they are tempted with more power. There is some evidence that the greater amount of power in Washington DC might be related to the increase in the perceptions that American representatives are more crooked. This study, published by ANES, below, showed that Americans are simply less confident that government is not run by "A Few Big Interests." Today, only 16% of Americans say that Government is run "for the benefit of all," as compared to 64% in 1964:

Trust Among Branches

The picture becomes slightly more complicated, however, when measures of trust are broken down in to different branches and levels of government. Using Gallup data from 2022, Federalism Index Scholar Johana Linford put together this interactive graph, which

allows users to visualize relative perceptions of trust across institutions, and also broken down by Party ID.

As this graph below suggests, there is a large and significant "party gap" between Democrats and Republicans on the Executive Branch - a finding that is consistent with other studies that show that citizen perceptions of the Presidency vary with the political party in power. However, there is almost no party gap when it comes to Americans' view of local government.

Click on interactive graph below to explore differences among Democrats, Independents and Republicans:

Trust in major institutions, like the Presidency, have also varied significantly over time, in sometimes surprising ways. This animated graph helps to illustrate how trust in the Presidency has changed dynamically over the last 50 years:

Trust in Congress

Judging by one set of metrics, one could argue that America has had bad luck with its recent string of presidents. Data shows, however, that Congress now has the worst record when it comes to general levels of confidence. This study below reveals that Americans' confidence in Congress experienced the most significant decline. As you can see for yourself, a majority of Americans trusted all three branches of government "a great deal" or "a fair amount" as recently as 2005. By 2023, only 47% of Americans said they trust the Supreme Court, while only 43% and 38% said they could trust the Executive and Legislative branches respectively:

Age and Partisanship

What does age have to do with it?

As shown below, the decline in trust in government is consistent across generations, although with some preliminary data showing a steeper decline among Millennials and Gen Z:

Partisanship

Do partisan leanings affect trust in government?

Although Republicans tend to be more "reactive" to changes in party, trust has declined at similar rates regardless of party affiliation. Although the trends appear to indicate a faster decline in trust among Republicans, there is no research to suggest that overall levels of declining trust is a typical partisan issue. Red and blue now appear to be united in their lack of faith in government institutions to "do the right thing" most of the time:

State and Local Governments

When polling firms began asking questions about trust in government in 1958, three-quarters of Americans said they trusted the federal government to "do the right thing almost always or most of the time." By 2023, only 16% said the could trust the federal government always or most of the time.

Overall, Americans do not express the same negative feelings about state and local governments.

In 2022, Gallup asked respondents, "How much trust and confidence do you have in the government of the state where you live when it comes to handling state problems - a great deal, a fair amount, not very much or none at all"? They asked the same question about local governments. As the following chart shows, Americans are far more trusting in their state and local governments than they are in Congress, the Executive, or the Supreme Court:

Things are not perfect, though, at any level of government. This graph shows that trust in state governments has declined - although less steeply - than at the federal level:

Local government seems to have fared the best, a finding which might surprise even the great Alexis de Tocqueville, who championed America's "township" system as one of the key elements in the preservation of American Democracy

The following graph summarizes how local and state governments have fared in comparison to other levels of government:

A 2017 poll from AP NORC provides yet another view, a of this trend. People are more optimistic about the way things are going in their local community than they are with the way things are going at other levels in the federal system:

Why has trust in state and local government remained unchanged?

One reason, according to Gallup, is that Americans' view these levels of government as more responsive to their concerns:

"They may see these levels of government as more responsive to their concerns and more capable, as the federal government continues to suffer from gridlock in a politically divided nation."

Key Takeaways

Highlights

Declining Trust in Federal Government: Trust in federal institutions has dramatically declined, with a 2023 survey showing only 16% of Americans trust the federal government to "do the right thing" most of the time, compared to 75% in 1958.
Trust as a Critical Issue: In a 2019 Pew survey, 41% of respondents ranked trust in the federal government as a "very big problem," making it more significant than other major societal issues like racism and immigration.
Perception of Corruption: The belief that the federal government is "crooked" increased from 20% in 1960 to over 60% in 2012, reflecting growing mistrust in the ethics of government officials.
Trust Across Branches: Trust in the Executive Branch varies significantly with political party affiliation, while trust in local governments remains consistent across party lines, according to 2022 Gallup data.
Congress Faces Worst Decline: Confidence in Congress dropped drastically, with only 38% of Americans trusting it in 2023, making it the least trusted branch of the federal government.
State and Local Governments Trusted More: Americans express more trust in state and local governments, with Gallup showing consistently higher levels of confidence compared to federal institutions, likely due to perceived responsiveness.
Decline Across Generations: Trust in government has declined steadily across all age groups, though preliminary data suggests Millennials and Gen Z may be showing a steeper decline than older generations.
Bipartisan Mistrust: Mistrust in the federal government is not a purely partisan issue, with Republicans and Democrats both showing declining trust, although Republicans exhibit more reactive trust measures based on party leadership.
Impact on Problem-Solving: In a Pew survey, 64% of Americans said low trust in the federal government makes it harder to solve key societal problems, emphasizing the importance of restoring trust
International Comparison: The decline in trust is not limited to the U.S. Federal government; international comparisons reveal that trust in U.S. institutions is lower than in many other developed nations.

While this dashboard examined trust and confidence in government from varying aspects, it does not cover the extensive research on explanations for declining trust. Some, for example, question if the problem of declining trust is as bad as it seems, as discussed

by Lynn Vavreck in "The Long Decline of Trust in Government, and Why That Can Be Patriotic." New York Times, July 3, 2015. https://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/04/upshot/the-long-decline-of-trust-in-government-and-why-that-can-be-patriotic.html

Sources

American National Election Studies Trust in Government Index.  https://electionstudies.org/resources/anes-guide/.

Fishman, Noah and Alyssa Davis. "Americans Still See Big Government as Top Threat" Gallup, January 5, 2017.  https://news.gallup.com/poll/201629/americans-big-government-top-threat.aspx.

Gallup, In-Depth: Topics A to Z, Government. https://news.gallup.com/poll/27286/government.aspx .

Gallup, In-Depth: Topics A to Z, Confidence in Institutions. https://news.gallup.com/poll/1597/confidence-institutions.aspx .

Kincaid, John and Richard L. Cole, "Citizen Attitudes Toward Issues of Federalism in Canada, Mexico, and the United States." Publius: The Journal of Federalism 41, Issue 1, Winter 2011 (2010): 53-75.  https://academic.oup.com/publius/article/41/1/53/1888809.

PEW, "Public Trust in Government:1958-2019." https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/04/11/public-trust-in-government-1958-2019/.